Merchandising & Buying

Product cannibalisation detection

Identify when new product introductions are stealing sales from existing range rather than generating incremental revenue. Flag cannibalisation patterns at category and location level.

Decision supportPattern-matchingRevenueAccuracy

10–20%

improvement in new product incremental revenue assessment

Opportunity assessment

Business Impact
3

Moderate impact. Meaningful cost or revenue improvement, likely noticeable at function level but modest relative to total business scale.

Feasibility
2

Challenging. Significant technical work required. Likely needs an AI engineer or specialist vendor. Not a quick win.

Data Readiness
2

Demanding data requirements. Relies on clean, integrated data across multiple systems. Significant data preparation work typically needed.

Risk Exposure
4

Low risk. Limited external exposure. A human reviews output before it reaches anyone outside the team.

Change Complexity
4

Light people impact. A new tool slots into an existing workflow. Minimal training needed. Most people will adapt quickly.

Tooling required

Specialist AI toolFine-tuned model

Things to consider

  • Cannibalisation is hard to isolate from other effects (seasonality, promotion, competitor activity). The model needs to control for confounders, which requires good baseline data.

  • This works best post-launch as a diagnostic tool rather than a predictive tool — confirming cannibalisation quickly lets you adjust range or space allocation before the season is lost.

  • Buyers are often resistant to evidence that their new product isn't generating incremental sales — frame the output as range optimisation, not performance criticism.

  • Experiment starter: Select three recent product introductions and one control group of similar existing products. Run a basket analysis to see whether the new products appear alongside or instead of existing lines. If substitution exceeds 40%, you have a cannibalisation problem worth investigating at scale.

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